April 3, 2023
Fast forward to 2050 and what will the global logistics sector look like? Translink Corporate Finance, in partnership with the Stellenbosch Business School’s Institute for Futures Research has explored plausible futures for the industry in its latest sector report entitled Tomorrow: 2050 Alternative Futures for Logistics. Focusing primarily on the implications for M&A, these futures are based on two critical scenario-shaping factors impacting logistics globally: climate change mitigation and the development and adoption of new technologies.
Andreas Hüchting and Lina Ismail, co-heads of Translink Corporate Finance’s logistics group, explore a synopsis of each scenario and the implications for M&A.
FRAGMENTED MOVES SCENARIO
The Fragmented Moves future would see global cooperation, with shared standards around climate change; however, there would be fierce protectionism over new technologies by elitist companies and countries.
“This would prompt a plethora of high value M&A deals as organisations buy into established corridors, across varying technology ecosystems. There could also be opportunities to participate in reverse logistics and to use M&A as a means of skills acquisition outside one’s own jurisdiction,” says Hüchting, Partner of Translink Corporate Finance in Germany and a board member of Translink International.
SHARED MOVES SCENARIO
In a ‘Shared Moves’ world, there would be global cooperation when it comes to climate change mitigation and inclusive access to new technologies, including advances in automation and robotics.
Ismail, Partner of Translink Corporate Finance in Belgium and France adds, “Global pressure to create a more restorative – not only a sustainable – economy would foster opportunities for logistics companies to form creative alliances with technology and environmental players. In this scenario, ESG would become an increasingly important criteria for completing transactions, with M&A used as a mechanism for climate change compliance.”
COMPLEX MOVES SCENARIO
This is the scenario Translink experts believe most resembles the current state of play in the logistics sector. “The COP agreements show there is a strong will by several relevant economies and the UN to address climate change challenges on a global scale, although this is not moving quickly,” says Hüchting.
In this world, companies and governments would likely practice protectionism to guard their technological advantages. Different regions would have their own climate change mitigation measures, creating a complex logistics environment, with reduced globalisation.
SMART MOVES SCENARIO
Without a global consensus on climate change, production and logistics standards would vary across regions, creating a potential challenge for businesses. However, inclusive development and adoption of technology could foster an intelligent logistics sector that can navigate the diverse standards across different regions.
Ismail adds, “Adopting inclusive technology and forming strategic partnerships with emerging startups can help logistics companies stay ahead of the curve and meet the evolving demands of consumers while addressing environmental concerns.”
Irrespective of which future(s) comes to fruition, Translink has the expertise to steward clients through periods of change and get the deal done. The group has advised on over 100 transactions in the sector, and its 20 logistics sector experts have deep relationships with a wide network of players worldwide.
To read the full report, click here: Tomorrow: 2050 Alternative Futures for Logistics
To view the infographic, click here: Tomorrow: 2050 Alternative Futures for Logistics Infographic